Bitcoin is in corrective territory. This is the baptism of fire every newcomer eventually experiences, and while never a welcomed sight it does get easier to digest over time.
Let’s dig in.
‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry Bets Against US Treasury Bonds
Legendary investor and trader who called the 2008 financial crash is betting against Tesla and long-term US Treasury bonds, warning of higher inflation figures on the horizon. Dr. Michael Burry is betting against the US Federal Reserve.
The big short investor reorganised his holdings, swapping out the likes of Pfizer and Wells Fargo for Alphabet and Occidental Petroleum. These sweeping portfolio changes came last quarter, as the firm exited 15 of 23 positions, adding 18 new names to its holdings. However, most of Burry’s capital was bet against Tesla and US Treasuries, with long hedges for Google, Facebook and other value-stocks.
Aside from the Tesla short, Dr. Burry is effectively betting against the United States Federal Reserve.
Check out the full article here!
Bitcoin Assumes Bearish Posture Until Proven Otherwise
Bitcoin closed below the 20-weekly EMA ($44,825), a critical moving average which typically defines bull and bear markets. The technically bearish posture has also been confirmed on the weekly super-trend indicator, lending more confluence to the probability that bitcoin won’t be smashing all time highs for at least a couple of weeks.
That being said, BTC/USD is oversold and potentially setting up for a bullish reversal in the next few days. On the daily time-frame, the Relative Strength Index has developed a bullish divergence, whereby price trends lower as bearish momentum weakens. While the extent of the recovery remains to be seen, it’s typical for prices to revert to the mean moving averages even if the trend has changed.
In this case, the weekly average to take note of is the 20-weekly EMA mentioned above and in the telegram channel.
Levels to watch
- Weekly close above $44,825 suggests bull market continuation ($70,000 next).
- A rejection from this level suggests weekly consolidation between $30,000 and $45,000.
- A drop below $30,000 suggests a potential move to the 0.786 fib level at $21,600. (This scenario is least likely at the time of publishing)
In truth, nobody knows with absolute certainty what’s next and there are no technical or fundamental indicators that can predict the future (as you know). However, the fact is that bitcoin has created strong blocks of resistance overhead, which we may outline as a range between $44,825 and the $50,000 psychological resistance zone.
Bear in mind that ‘support’ and ‘resistance’ levels are not mystical concepts, but levels where buy and sell orders of all kind aggregate. Typically, buyers show up at the 20-weekly EMA, but for a number of confluent reasons outlined in the prior newsletter, it was not the case this time around.
Has Bitcoin’s appeal dimmed?
The short answer is no, it hasn’t by any means. The United States Federal Reserve recently missed inflation figures despite the trillions of dollars in stimulus checks and corporate handouts. Add to this the jobs count miss and it’s unlikely for the Fed to start tapering any time soon — it would be a politically untenable situation.
As such, the US Fed will continue printing along with all the other Central Banks around the world as a potential ‘stagflationary’ environment creeps in.
Just last week, I wrote a piece outlining why the imminent launch of CBDC’s is not a threat to bitcoin. The over-arching narrative is that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are becoming more relevant, not less — and this trend will continue well into the future because retail, corporate America and the United States Federal Reserve have a vested interest in this new economy. Countries that don’t jump on this globalising financial technology will be left behind.
Over the coming months and years, bitcoin’s absoluteness will likely play a pivotal role in all aspects of finance, which means that this is not an industry you want to walk away from. Sooner or later, you’ll be dragged into it anyway — by which time the market will have become far more efficient (thereby providing less opportunity).
While your decisions are your own, all I can say is this: don’t mind the media, political narratives and attacks against bitcoin. In the grand scheme of things, it is just noise we’ve heard time and again from people paid to keep a decedent system alive (or from those who have a vested interest to see bitcoin compromised).
These same people, who bend over backwards to ensure that corporate socialism is thriving, are up against bitcoiners who have seen their net-worth plummet 90-plus percent every so often and remained in the game. That is the measure of their resolve.
These people would rather die on their feet than live on their knees. Indeed, bitcoin is more than just another cryptocurrency, it is a movement defined by the pursuit of financial freedom at all costs.
Eventually, the global farce we call the fiat money standard will come crashing down, and now is the time to prepare yourself for when the music stops (not when it stops).
This is not financial advice.
Catch you next time.
Read More: Are CBDC’s A Threat to Bitcoin?
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