El Salvador President Bukele Makes Bold Predictions for Bitcoin in 2022
Bitcoin has been consolidating in the same range for weeks, being so kind as to allow hodlers a well-deserved Christmas rest.
In this edition, we explore bold predictions coming from the President of El Salvador, the technical picture as well as an on-chain indicator that tends to coincide with market bottoms.
Let’s dig in.
El Salvador President Bukele Makes Bold Predictions for Bitcoin in 2022
The El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele, who made history last year by regularising bitcoin as legal tender in the country has some bold predictions for bitcoin and crypto in 2022.
In a tweet on Jan. 2, Bukele offered a total of 6 predictions for the next yer, starting with a new all-time high for bitcoin of $100,000.
Check out the full article here!
Dear readers,
The purpose of this newsletter is to provide context to cryptocurrency markets. This analysis takes time to write-up and it’s released every Monday and Wednesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent. I am also working on keeping my wording simple and to the point. Please bear with me.
Thank you for reading.
Feel free to contact me with feedback on contact@chrisoncrypto.com.
Will BTC Exit Consolidation Soon?
Bitcoin has ranged between $52,000 and $45,500 since the last bitcoin-market analysis sent out on Dec. 13.
The crypto has consolidated below the pivot and above a cluster of support levels as price-action coils up and open interest rises to typically consequential levels (again).
The $41,600 floor price (Bitfinex) has been respected so far, with a modest price-to-RSI bullish divergence developing on the daily time-frame.
Funding rates have been either neutral or negative, though the data varies slightly depending on the exchange.
According to the above aggregated data (coinalyze chart), funding rates are neutral (0.008) across the board.
Technically, BTC/USD is within bull territory according to the weekly super-trend, as prices compress between the 20 and 50-weekly EMAs. The first target for bulls would be a weekly reclaim of the pivot point ($52,900), while bears will aim for a weekly close below $44,500, in turn opening the door to the $3x,xxx mark.
Bitcoin Balance on Exchanges Recovers slightly
Meanwhile, the bitcoin balance on exchanges has recovered slightly, though the uptick of funds onto exchanges hasn’t changed the overall trend direction.
On Tuesday Dec. 7, the percentage balance of bitcoin on exchanges reached a low not seen since 2018 (13.33%). At the time of publishing, this figure hit 13.49%. A potential trend reversal would be in the making if the balance of bitcoin on exchanges increases above the local peak at 13.65%.
aSOPR Reaches a Pivotal Level
At the same time, Bitcoin’s aSOPR (adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio), which provides insight into market sentiment, profitability and losses over time is at a historically pivotal level.
A reading greater than 1 implies that coins moved on the day are on average selling at a profit, while the opposite is true when the value is less than 1.
Currently, aSOPR is at a pivotal level that tends to precede major trends. Besides the trend change that was confirmed on a back test in May-June 2021, an aSOPR value close to 1 historically marked the bottom for the coin.
Regardless, on-chain data must be taken within the context of price-action which is the primary indicator in my view.
All in all, the general picture at the time of writing is certainly not bearish. Let’s see what 2022 has in store for us. Onward and upwards!
Catch you later.
p.s. This is my opinion. It is not financial advice.
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Christopher Attard
Founder of Chris on Crypto
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Originally published at https://mailchi.mp.
