The purpose of this newsletter analysis is to provide context to current events and cryptocurrency markets. It is released every Monday and Wednesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.
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MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor Explains His Bullish Thesis on Bitcoin
The CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor said that he’s more bullish than he’s ever been on bitcoin. MicroStrategy has acquired over 129,218 Bitcoin as of April 4, 2002.
Read the full article here!
Ethereum closes below support
Ethereum/Dollar is up 4.4% since last Wednesday, after a brief visit to $2,800 on Monday. Since then, ETH/USD recovered 7.7% to $3,100.
The energetic price-action came in tandem with a ‘bear trap’ scenario unfolding for BTC/USD, mentioned on Monday.
In last week’s altcoin analysis, we discussed the probability of a rally in keeping with the overall bearish context. i.e. a relief rally ($until BTC takes out $45k).
Currently, ETH/USD is giving mixed signals, suggesting that either the weekly or the daily time-frame is bluffing. This could mean that price-action below the 200-daily EMA (+order block) is essentially a high-time frame deviation.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are still coping with the repercussions of high time frame failed breakouts, and both pairs bounced within an area of weekly resistance. More to the point, ETH/USD will either confirm the bear trap or bearish retest this week. I realise this isn’t saying much, but failed breakdowns tend to act as rocket-fuel for an upside move. The same is true of failed breakouts.
So far, bears are underwater and in trouble. Levels of interest for ETH/USD are the same as last week.
Monero closes in on $280
Monero/Dollar has continued its upward trajectory without much consideration for majors. XMR/USD exchanges hands at $261 at the time of writing, up 8.9% since last week.
The pair is approaching the top of the range, which makes it relatively less attractive now compared to the initial order-block reclaim ($184). XMR/USD is around 8% away from the target region.
Logically, a rejection or swing failure pattern (SFP) above $280 would suggest a retest of the range pivot. Should Monero/Dollar reclaim $290 on a weekly closing basis, the next point of interest for bulls is $370.
The XMR/BTC pair has reached resistance, however, which probabilistically suggests a cooling off period is due. If 0.0068–0.0078 region is taken out, then a move to 0.01 is in the cards.
Litecoin confirms bear trap
Litecoin/Dollar traded 4.4% higher week on week, exchanging hands at $112.8 at the time of writing. LTC/USD confirmed a bear-trap over the last few days, recovering the sell-off to $101 as the coin found a sustained bid.
The immediate resistance area for LTC/USD is the 200-daily EMA, resting at $138 (confluent with the 2019 high). The technical breakout target for a falling wedge is the top of the wedge, which would place LTC/USD at $166. Locally, an H4 close below $107 indicates a failed reversal pattern, which could result in a retest of $96 in the worst case scenario.
Zooming out, LTC/USD is technically at monthly support, meaning the decade-old coin will either experience a sustained bounce in this general area (above $96) or it will cease to exist as liquidity leaves. Given these stakes, the risk/reward is especially appealing to investors with a 6–12 month time horizon.
p.s. This is my opinion. It is not financial advice.
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