Ethereum Retains Semblance of Bullish Market Structure As FUD events Pass

5 min readApr 13, 2022

With a series of events that caused much fear, uncertainty and doubt behind us, crypto risk-assets are poised for a relief rally for the rest of the week. But with Bitcoin losing bullish weekly market structure, the market is on shaky ground. Altcoin rallies that do not take place under a regime of Bitcoin strength seldom end well.

But all is not lost. The night is darkest before the dawn.

Let’s dig in.

Dear readers,

The purpose of this newsletter analysis is to provide context to current events and cryptocurrency markets. It is released every Monday and Wednesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.

Thank you for reading.

Feel free to contact me with feedback on contact@chrisoncrypto.com.

72% of Financial Advisors Want Crypto Exchange Traded Funds

A Nasdaq survey found that 72% of financial advisors would invest more in crypto if a spot ETF were available in the US. However, despite this bullish stance, advisors were not hopeful the Securities and Exchange Commission would approve this product this year.

The SEC has so far chosen to put investors at unnecessary risk consistently rejecting Spot Bitcoin ETF applications, strangely citing consumer protection concerns on each rejection.

Read the full article here!

Technically speaking

Ethereum Tests $3,000

Ethereum/Dollar is down 4.8% week-on-week after testing support extremities within a risk-off environment exacerbated by US CPI figures.

Altcoins haemorrhaged during the bitcoin-led sell-off, but ETH/USD held up well relatively speaking. The case for Ethereum remains compelling, but stands on the edge of a knife. Historically, when Bitcoin/Dollar’s market structure tilts bearish it seldom bodes well for Ethereum (or alts). So there’s that to consider.

Time is running out for ETH/USD. In order for the pair to retain a bullish structure, price must close above the 200 daily EMA ($3,170), which forms part of the supportive order block. In essence, ETH/USD held the psychological level, but if the reaction is muted then market structure would not inspire confidence.

In prior analyses I noted $2,400 as a noteworthy support. But the trend of higher lows get exhausted the more often it’s tested, with liquidity resting beneath every key higher low. As such, the next compelling place for support (should the market roll over) is $2,000.

Bear in mind, both Bitcoin and altcoins are in extreme oversold territory with no FUD headlines in the immediate future. This is typically strong confluence for a relief rally which may develop into bullish structure.

Notably, this bout of sell-side pressure was dwarfed by inflows, per the trend-setting OBV explosion witnessed during the rally. The RSI has dipped below the 50-level, entering bearish territory, while the stoch-RSI is slammed in oversold territory. In essence, there is a robust technical case for bullishness for ETH/USD currently, but time is running out. Meandering below key levels skews probabilities towards downward expansion. Conversely, the market is extremely fearful more broadly, with key FUD events behind us.

Absent a reversal from $3,000 into a weekly close where the order block is successfully defended, $2,000 is likely.

ETH/USD exchanges hands at $3,050 at the time of publishing.

Monero Shrugs Off Market Weakness

Monero/Dollar has been largely unaffected by the price collapse, losing only 1.6% on a weekly basis.

XMR/USD reached $250 before selling off briefly and currently exchanges hands at $232.

A picture is worth a thousand words, so we’ll keep this short and sweet. XMR/USD trades above the 200-daily EMA and the local range pivot. As ranges go, once a pivot is ‘confirmed’ as support, the likely scenario is for the asset to traverse to the other end.

As such, a $280 Monero is in the cards, provided any sell-offs into the 200-daily EMA continue to get aggressively bought up. While this is not financial advice, it’s up to the individual to defend profits and incrementally take chips off the table.

Litecoin to $95 or Bear Trap?

Meanwhile, Litecoin/Dollar broke its daily bullish market structure and is down 3% on the week. The setup can still be ‘saved’ on the weekly time-frame, but this possibility is on a strict deadline.

As posted on Twitter (before the breakdown — it happens), LTC/USD might be repeating a reversal pattern similar to June-July 2021. The current situation is admittedly grim, but not lost. A local rejection off $110 back within the structure tilts probabilities towards another retest of the lows where the monthly super-trend indicator resides ($95.60). Should that fail to hold up, LTC/USD could revisit sub $66. This would be a macro breakdown in market structure, placing the coin on par with an amassing body of skeletal crypto corpses.

Litecoin is near a make it or break it point, technically. Which is hard to grasp given that the coin continues to look phenomenal, fundamentally. Try square that circle!

MWEB signalling is in progress, with 94% of the 6 largest mining pools signalling for the mammoth privacy-focused upgrade (which the market appears to value — see XMR). The fundamental event is on par with prior major bitcoin and Litecoin upgrades such as segregated witness and taproot. Unlike news events, fundamental upgrades tend to get fully priced in after they’re launched and working. This is an event that will potentially bring a regime of positive price-action as Litecoin defends its battered and bruised position as a proof-of-work market innovator.

Long story short, a sustained relief rally is likely, but expect cerebral altcoin rejections if Bitcoin gets slammed again.

Catch you later.

p.s. This is my opinion. It is not financial advice.

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