Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes tells Gold Bugs to Stack Bitcoin

4 min readMar 22, 2022

Bitcoin is up a few percentage points over the week as bulls get off the backfoot to go on the offensive.

Meanwhile, former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes tells gold bugs that “the mental leap towards spending fiat and saving bitcoin is miniscule.”

Let’s dig in.

Dear readers,

The purpose of this newsletter analysis is to provide context to current events and cryptocurrency markets. It is released every Monday and Wednesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.

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Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Predicts Hyperinflation is “100% Certain”

In early March, Investment Bank Credit Suisse predicted the Dollar’s world reserve currency status would be replaced by commodity money.

In his latest blog post, former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes built on those expectations, stating that hundreds of billions of dollars will flow into both bitcoin and gold this decade. However, the former CEO, who has attained an all-star status in the industry, is also “100% certain” that a financial crisis and hyperinflation of the Dollar will ensue in the meantime.

Read the full article here!

Technically speaking

Bitcoin Closes a Strong Weekly Candle

Bitcoin/Dollar exchanges hands at $40,300, up 4.3% week-on-week at the time of writing. The pair closed a weekly candle above $41,250 on Sunday, breaking the short 3-week trend of sell-offs just before the close.

BTC/USD is nearing the end of a multi-month consolidation structure which is set to breakout by mid April. So far, the seemingly headline-driven cerebral market has absorbed an outbreak of war in Ukraine, a US-crypto executive order and a US interest rate hike. Some analyst would suggest that all relevant information is in the charts as markets essentially boil down to liquidity hunts. I’m not so sure. Regardless, it’s useful to contextualise price-action even if some data are more valuable than others.

On the daily, Bitcoin is still trending between two key liquidity areas — $45,000 and $36,600. The weekly close suggests that bulls have stepped in for now, and as long as price stays above the local range pivot (on a closing basis) then another attempt at $45,000 is the likelier scenario in my view. That would be the 5th test of weekly resistance. Each time a level is tested increases the likelihood that it will break due to built up liquidity beyond the level.

Beyond that, $52,000 and $55,000 could provide opportunities for profit-taking where bears would also look to step in. This depends on a number of factors which we will analyse if and when price trends there.

The real test for bulls in this scenario is whether reclaimed levels can be successfully defended — $45,000 being the most pivotal medium-term level. A reclaim and subsequent close below the level or swing-failure-pattern (SFP) is unlikely to spur buying interest within the consolidation structure in my view. At this point, it would be prudent to look for the third ‘dive’ to at least the local liquidity area ($36.6k) as an ultimate bottom (similar to what happened in July 2021).

Make no mistake, such a scenario would be a gift, after which I’d expect a multi-month bull market above all time highs to six figures. Unfortunately lived economic conditions will probably worsen during this time. The concoction of supply chain disruptions, an exponentially expanding money supply, a looming European energy crisis and just good old fashioned decadence can’t easily be turned on its head.

And if there’s no indication that poverty-producing policies will end (quite the opposite), then it’s all the more reason to get on the right side of the fiat-based ponzi scheme.

Catch you later.

p.s. This is my opinion. It is not financial advice.

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