Is the Crypto Bull Market Over? These Indicators Reveal The Answer

This write-up may very well be the last opportunity for no-coiners to buy bitcoin before the parabola goes into overdrive. In it, I underline several key indicators which could rule the crypto portfolios of many.

Let’s dig in.

Three Reasons To Own Litecoin

Investors are taking a keen look at cryptocurrencies and where to place their money. While Bitcoin is an obvious choice for some, a rising tide lifts all boats, and often enough investors tend to favour a diversified approach rather than centralised one. This is where Litecoin comes in.

Check out the full article here!

Technically speaking

BTC/USD closed the week below the 50-daily moving average at $59,000, opening the possibility for lower levels to be hit before probably resuming the upwards trend. So far bitcoin has dropped 19.5% since the $69,000 all time high, which falls a few percentage points short of typical retracements (around 20%-30%).

Still, BTC/USD is clinging onto the range and while lower levels are technically probable in the immediate short term, it’s unlikely that discounted prices will last much longer. That said, unless Bitcoin reclaims $59,000 in the next hours, the target for the falling wedge breakdown is $52,900.

Despite the technical picture, the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (StochRSI) is currently in oversold territory, suggesting that the $55,600 might have been the bottom. The derivative oscillator tends to have ‘staying power’ in the direction of the trend, while spending a brief time in oversold conditions.

Bitcoin’s daily trend is up and to the right.

Should prices fall lower, the Relative Strength Index would also traverse into oversold territory, increasing the odds of a reversal.

BTC/USD exchanges hands at $57,200 at the time of writing.

Evidence for the end of the bull market has not materialised.

Bitcoin balance on exchanges is inversely related to price action. This trend has not changed, suggesting that the current selling pressure forms part of a healthy correction in a broader uptrend. When the trend changes, then the likelihood of a distribution phase increases.

Net unrealised profit / loss (NUPL) has also reset to healthy levels which were visible back when BTC traded at $40,000.

NUPL is a tool that indicates macro downside risk in terms of coin P/Ls. When the indicator turns blue (euphoria — greed), it means that the bull market could soon come to a close. Notably, prices can increase exponentially in a short amount of time when BTC/USD enters this phase.

All in all, current market conditions do not warrant calls for the end of the bull market.

Still, it remains to be seen whether the blow off top will occur in Q4 2021, or by June 2022. This is an open question. Regardless, this is a great time to layer into (buy) bitcoin.

Catch you later.

p.s. This is my opinion. It is not financial advice.

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Christopher Attard
Founder of Chris on Crypto
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