Is the US Poised to do the Opposite of China WRT Bitcoin and Crypto?

4 min readOct 6, 2021

Bitcoin billionaire and venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya is confident that “bitcoin has effectively replaced gold”, and that “it will continue to do so” as the months roll on.

Meanwhile, as the September drought recedes, can we expect the monsoon season to kick start capital flows into crypto? If history is anything to go by, then Q4 should be quite explosive.

Let’s dig in.

Chamath Palihapitiya drops Hundreds of millions into Bitcoin

Chamath Palihapitiya has invested hundreds of millions into bitcoin, telling CNBC that it’s tough to enforce a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies as China is attempting to do.

“It’s very hard for me sitting here to give you a price prediction,” he told CNBC. “But I can pretty confidently say that bitcoin, I think, has effectively replaced gold. And it will continue to do so. And so that market cap is just going to grow.”

Check out the full article here!

Technically speaking

Uptober coming into play

A few days into the month and the “Uptober” meme appears to have come true, with the total cryptocurrency market cap adding 200 billion in a matter of days — now standing at $2.1 trillion, per figures from trading view.

BTC broke out of the falling wedge formation, claiming $43,000 then $45,000 shortly thereafter until meeting its first resistance zone.

The BTC/USD trend has flipped bullish on both low and medium time-frames. This means that pull-backs are buying opportunities until proven otherwise.

As noted in the telegram channel, areas of confluence rest between $46,300 and $45,800. The 200-exponentail moving average coincides with several key levels on the 1-hour chart, namely the .382 fib (measured from the start of the uptrend before the breakout) and the MTF support/resistance zone noted in prior newsletters ($45,200).

Additionally, the technical target of a falling wedge is the top of the wedge which rests at $52,000. However, once (if) Bitcoin reaches that level, then this would also paint a bullish picture on higher-time frames — potentially snowballing into a high-time frame breakout to $57,000.

Should bitcoin reclaim $49,000 without consolidating to the 200-ema, then it’s probable that BTC/USD is undergoing an upwards accumulation phase that normally results in another impulsive move higher.

Notably, since closing a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly time-frame, the odds of high time-frame continuation to new all time highs have improved considerably in my estimation.

This opens the door for a $100,000 bitcoin sometime in Q4.

Crossing the Rubicon

Despite the fact that bitcoin’s price-action has refuted bearish arguments across the board, some analysts are weary of current prices and often point to FUD-events to buttress a bearish thesis. While anything is possible, bears had plenty of chances to show strength by now. Time and again, we’ve seen China FUD absorbed as if it was just a passing fad, for example — something I’ve often alluded to. The question I would ask my fellow analysts is simple: why could this be? Why is it that events that ‘should’ cause panic are not having that effect?

The answer lies in the simple fact that we have crossed the monetary rubicon. There is no going back. Inflation is not transitory, it’s here to stay and it is accelerating. Central banks are not limiting their balance sheet, they are expanding it exponentially, partly because that’s the only option. Meanwhile, Central Bank Digital Currency development is accelerating. China’s digital Yuan is the epitome of everything that is wrong with this broken monetary system. One can only hope that the US does not take the same route. Regardless, it is in everyone’s interest that Bitcoin succeeds.

The last nail in the coffin is the USDT FUD — which has invariably been debunked by both a New York Court and most recently, Jerome Powell himself, who noted that while stablecoins need to be brought within the regulatory perimeter of money market funds, there is no intention to ban them. This is positive news which suggests that the US is positioning itself to embrace bitcoin and crypto rather than fight it (and lose) like China is trying to do.

You can actually tell how long someone has been in crypto depending on their view on Tether conspiracies.

Catch you later

p.s. This is my opinion. You can have your own opinion.

Join the Telegram channel for live updates & setups!

Follow me on Twitter & Gab and my social portals below.