In this edition, we discuss Peter Thiel’s decision to leave Facebook’s parent company Meta in order to pursue politics in America. The billionaire ‘crypto maximallist’ tends to establish trends wherever he goes.
Additionally, we also analyse levels of interest for several Altcoin/Dollar pairs which warrant a closer look. Is crypto witnessing a large-scale accumulation period or will the industry roll over soon?
Let’s dig in.
Peter Thiel to Leave Meta to Pursue Political Conservatism in America
Billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel is stepping down from the board of Facebook’s parent company Meta in pursuit of a pro-conservative political vision.
The announcement came on Monday after Meta’s stock price plunged 26% last Wednesday, with the social media giant reporting that it lost daily users for the first time in history.
Read the full article here.
The purpose of this newsletter is to provide context to cryptocurrency markets. This analysis takes time to write-up and it’s released every Monday and Wednesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.
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ETH Hovers below resistance
Ethereum/Dollar rallied to $3,230 and has so far held its ground above the psychological support.
The second most popular crypto flipped the daily super-trend into a ‘buy’ — a signal which last printed on Oct. 14 2021. As such, bulls looking to play a reversal will aim to maintain this trend should prices trend sideways below resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has trended within bullish territory (60) and has room for more upside on the daily time-frame. However, its derivative indicator, the Stochastic RSI which is a more sensitive oscillator, suggests intra-week consolidation since it has been within overbought territory for 7-days in a row.
Notably, the stoch-RSI resets fairly quickly so a downturn could be short lived and does not carry the same consequential weight as when the RSI is overbought. It should be considered within the basket of indicators regardless.
From a naked-price action perspective, ETH/USD is at resistance, and until a daily close above $3,300 materialises, one can expect profit-taking to stall the attempted reversal. Immediate support rests at $2,700 and $2,400 respectively.
On the upside, a move above $3,300 opens up the possibility for $3,900 and $4,000, which if reached without any meaningful consolidation before would likely be a significant trouble area.
Still, this analysis cannot be taken at face value without due consideration for Bitcoin/Dollar movements. Provided Bitcoin follows a marginally bullish trajectory (as outlined in Monday’s mailout), all is well in the cryptoverse. Signs of market over heating include increasingly positive funding rates, as well as an uptick in the open interest/market cap ratio following a reset. Generally, we do not want to see OI/mkap increase astride price-action as that indicates increasing relative downside risk, in my estimation.
Litecoin is on the move
Litecoin/Dollar rebounded to $138 at the time of writing. For those who recall, this level was the 2019 high for the year and carries some historical significance even recently.
The pair’s downtrend has been particularly brutal and buyers have a lot of work to do to bring back confidence in the coin.
In prior analyses, we noted that reclaiming the 200-EMA ($161.50) is a necessary pre-requisite before ascribing any merit to bullish setups. This is still true, especially given the context of a range-bound BTC/USD market.
Until then, it’s not only prudent but absolutely necessary to assume that LTC/USD will continue to have seismic swings to either side relative to BTC/USD.
however, the RSI is above 60, indicating room for growth before consolidation. Meanwhile, the Stoch-RSI eclipsed overbought territory on Feb 5th, suggesting an increased potential for a retracement.
Given this context, a move to $117-$110 would be a strong buy opportunity should it arise. On the flip-side, if buyers continue to step in, one can expect profit taking to become more pronounced at the 200-EMA.
Compound Ticks Higher
Meanwhile, Compound/Dollar hit $153 before finding local resistance. The lending protocol has yet to break the downtrend present since Sept. 6th, and it’s potentially setting up for fireworks once a decisive thrust invalidates the downtrend.
As noted last week, Comp/Dollar bounced on monthly super-trend support. If that fails to hold, it’s not obvious that the protocol will continue to exist.
However, the pair is attempting to find a bottom and where better to do that than at monthly support?
The first S/R level of interest rests at $179-$200, which if surpassed opens the door to $274. For all intents and purposes, compound has been in a technical bear market since May 2021.
Unless you think it’s going to zero, this is the place to pick some up.
Catch you later.
p.s. This is my opinion. It is not financial advice.
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