Priced In: Bitcoin Over-Reacts to Questionable Narratives & Fear Porn
Bitcoin has succumb to selling pressure once again, falling below $40,000 and threatening to retest the January lows.
However, as legacy media narratives fall apart with the most basic scrutiny, it’s possible that markets have priced-in dark events that may never come to pass.
Let’s dig in.
Biden to Issue Crypto Executive Order As Canada Freezes Bank Accounts
US President Biden is expected to release a crypto-related executive order this week according to the latest reports.
The executive order will direct government agencies to begin examining various areas of the cryptocurrency landscape in order to develop a regulatory framework.
Check out the full article here!
Dear readers,
The purpose of this newsletter is to provide context to cryptocurrency markets. This analysis takes time to write-up and it’s released every Monday and Wednesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.
Thank you for reading.
Feel free to contact me with feedback on contact@chrisoncrypto.com.
Technically speaking
Bitcoin Approaches Weekly Low
Bitcoin/Dollar continues to roll over, exchanging hands at $37,500 at the time of writing.
BTC/USD is down 2% on the day so far as sellers drive prices lower.
The coin has dropped below the daily super trend ($38,300) and is setup for another leg down unless the level is reclaimed post-haste.
Immediate support which could provide a relief rally or a full reversal rests at $36,800.
Market sentiment has also taken a turn for the worst as Russia-US tensions apparently escalate, despite there being conflicting reports on the situation which we will discuss shortly.
Still, the next hours are crucial for bitcoin bulls, which must close the daily candle above $38,300 if there’s to be another test of $45,000 within the coming days. If the daily super-trend support is reclaimed today, upside targets become likely.
Beyond that, the next areas of confluence for support are $33,500 (prior low) and the monthly super-trend at $29,500. Should prices tumble further, there’s still a strong case for long opportunities given that there is resting liquidity above $41,000 — which I expect will be taken out sooner or later.
All in all the market is entering oversold territory on the daily RSI during a bout of tremendously bearish sentiment.
Market over-reactions do not make sense
That said, Bitcoin/Dollar is probably closer to a bottom than one might think. The Russia-Ukraine situation has by and large been exaggerated and both countries have repeatedly said that war isn’t likely (nor are they seeking it). Meanwhile, legacy Western media has repeatedly run headlines that almost encourage war with Russia. Both the US and RU have accused each other of potentially setting up false flag operations. While there’s no doubt that geo-politics is at play, legacy Western media (CNN etc.) appear to be the aggressors on the surface. Russian media (RT) says the country seeks assurances that would contain any Nato expansion Eastward, while US media says Russia will simply invade Ukraine on its own merits. Undoubtedly, there’s more than meets the eye.
At the same time, a fundamental use-case for crypto is playing out before our eyes as Trudeau uses illegal powers to freeze bank accounts, suspend individual liberties and criminalise crypto transactions aimed at supporting freedom protests. Canada’s totalitarian turn sets a precedent for other Western countries to follow if Canadians do not succeed in removing Trudeau. The quasi-communist leader has faced harsh criticism by millions of Canadians and the opposition in demonstrations and online, yet Western leaders have not condemned the dictator and continue to scare-monger about Russia while their backyard is on fire.
So it seems we have a situation where US president Biden continues to cry wolf, all the while a use-case for bitcoin, litecoin and cryptocurrency plays out in real time. The only conclusion that resonates with someone trying to make sense of it all is that governments are attempting to psyops the general public into the same perpetual state of fear they had when the corona-scam made headlines for two full years. The question is: will markets remain irrationally afraid of every narrative that collapses on the most basic surface level scrutiny?
US President Joe Biden is expected to announce an executive order this week that would give further insight as to the US approach on crypto regulation. All eyes are on this development, or at least they should be.
Catch you later.
p.s. This is my opinion. It is not financial advice.
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Christopher Attard
Founder of Chris on Crypto
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Originally published at https://mailchi.mp.
