SkyBridge Capital Founder Anticipates a $500,000 Bitcoin Amid near-term Market Uncertainty

4 min readJan 31, 2022

Bitcoin trading is on hard mode from now on, which means sharp and cerebral moves should come as no surprise. But within the context of a vastly oversold crypto market, will these low-time-frame gyrations really matter in 6 months time?

Meanwhile, high-rolling institutional investors draw comparisons between Web1.0 tech stocks and Bitcoin to buttress long-term arguments for a 6-digit bitcoin.

Let’s dig in.

SkyBridge Capital Founder Anthony Scaramucci Anticipates a $500,000 Bitcoin

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci compares the bitcoin network to Amazon Web 1.0 growth, noting that discipline is a virtue in this game. Similarly, Litecoin’s network growth started trending parabolically last year. Is this the contagion effect that will take LTC to 4-digits?

Check out the full article here!

Dear readers,

The purpose of this newsletter is to provide context to cryptocurrency markets. This analysis takes time to write-up and it’s released every Monday and Wednesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.

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Technically speaking

Initiate BTC Chop Suey?

Bitcoin/Dollar is boring, which is better than a nuke to new lows.

Traders seem to expect a move to $40,000 followed by a flush below $30,000. But the reality may be far more anti-climactic, as Bitcoin has a tendency of rubbishing all immediate expectations by doing absolutely nothing.

Currently, BTC/USD exchanges hands at $37,200 after losing momentum on low time-frames. If BTC/USD is within a ranging environment, then there are practically three levels (marked) to pay attention to in the coming hours.

Bitcoin is bearish on LTFs after having broken down from the rising wedge structure and below a key level. Unless $37,580 is decisively reclaimed, bears will aim for $35,500. Given the overall bearish structure, price-action may overshoot lower and open a possibility for a deviation scalp long-setup.

On low-time frames, buying a reclaim of resistance or a deviation of support is an interesting scalp opportunity.

High Time-Frame Reversal Underway?

February is around the corner and Bitcoin/Dollar will close three monthly red candles by eod. Often times, analysts look for ranging signals on LTFs when the Higher time-frame (HTF) is poised for a reversal due to oversold conditions.

Should the LTF ranging structure fail, only then would it be prudent to anticipate another leg lower — which in my view would be short-lived due to the incredibly oversold nature of the market.

The relative strength index trend has coincided with the bear-trend since the daily price-to-RSI deviation confirmed on November 10th. Should LTF structure delineated before fail, it’s highly likely for Bitcoin/Dollar to create a bullish divergence (i.e. lower price and higher RSI) that would signal an imminent reversal which would probably last for weeks. The first HTF target for team bull is the weekly S/R at $44,600.

Needless to say, such a scenario doesn’t have to unfold, but a plan is better than no plan.

Notably, the open interest/marketcap ratio has started to trend lower within a choppy trading environment, indicating that traders appear to be taking a modest step back on the leverage multiplier. Funding rates are clearly negative, suggesting that liquidity rests above. This state of affairs can last for an uncomfortably long period as traders build positions and double down (potentially) in an environment that ultimately culminates in a liquidation cascade.

That said, provided the lows ($33,500) aren’t taken out on a daily closing basis, a green February is probable. At the same time, we’re playing on hard mode, so expect sharp temperamental moves within a drawn-out bottoming process.

On a longer-time horizon (6 months), a $37,000 Bitcoin is a solid 10/10 buy in my view.

Catch you later.

p.s. This is my opinion. It is not financial advice.

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