The Case For Bitcoin Builds Itself as Non-Zero BTC Addresses hit ATH
The case for Bitcoin appears to be building itself in light of events outside the control of normal people.
As global politics takes a turn for the worst, bitcoin on-chain data shows robust growth as does the technical reclaim of $40,000.
Let’s dig in.
Non-zero Bitcoin Addresses hit all-time high of 40 million
On-chain data for February indicates a positive turnaround for Bitcoin in sentiment as addresses with non-zero balances spike to all time highs.
Moreover, wallets with a positive Bitcoin balance have increased their holding behaviour and are not adding fresh supply in the market overall. Bitcoin’s circulating supply last active between three and five years ago has reached a historical moment which preceded an extended bull run in 2017, according to data from Glassnode.
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Bitcoin Takes aim at $41,200
Bitcoin/Dollar found a bottom at $34,375 last week, rising 11.4% week on week at the time of writing.
The crypto’s performance for the past few days is indicative of a probable bottoming process which could result in a retest of the weekly S/R level, provided the market opts for LTF follow-through.
Specifically, the resting liquidity at $41,200 is a key target for bulls to conquer and hold on a daily closing basis as platform to launch an assault on higher levels. Technically, the resting liquidity at $41,200 also coincides with a longer-term downtrend which began after the Nov. 10 all time high of $69,000.
Follow through above $42,500 would open the door to the $45,000 level, which if taken out sets the stage for a ‘w’ breakout to $52,000.
In technical downtrends, resistance is more likely to hold the same way support is more likely to hold in uptrends. As such, failure to break the downtrend could result in yet another retest of the LTF pivot (36,600), which if taken out opens the door to a $30,000 floor retest.
Regardless of whether this attempt is successful, however, BTC/USD is closer to ending this selling season now more than ever due to various tailwinds.
Bitcoin outperforms Nasdaq
On a weekly time-frame, BTC/USD has shown relative strength in comparison to traditional tech stocks, specifically the Nasdaq. Specifically, while the NDAQ printed a lower low, BTC/USD formed a higher low.
Investors tend to treat bitcoin as a proxy for US tech stocks like the NDAQ and S&P500. Often enough, the parallels are striking in both risk-on and risk-off environments, but these periods of relative step-lock price-action do not last forever.
Currently, BTC/USD is displaying relative strength on a weekly basis, indicating that a long-term bottom could already be in as investors rotate into the king crypto.
On another note, USD Tether dominance reached levels not seen since June 2021 just last week. USD Tether dominance has demonstrated an inverse relationship to Bitcoin’s dollar price since 2021. If USDT dominance has topped out, then all that capital has to go somewhere, and it’s probably going to go to bitcoin, litecoin and other altcoins.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict
Last week, we discussed the Russia-Ukraine situation and the potential for escalation amidst loud calls from legacy media about an imminent war in Ukraine. Admittedly, I was sceptical keeping in mind their track record for hysteria. Unfortunately, posturing turned into action and war broke out. On a humanitarian level, this is an absolute disaster and I’m sure everyone wants to see an end in hostilities immediately. War is a race to the bottom and there are no winners, as discussed briefly in the telegram channel.
From a market perspective, it looks like investors were expecting an all-out nuclear escalation, and when those expectations (thankfully) weren’t met market blood-letting was mostly contained. In this scenario, both Europe and Russia are facing a war of attrition where neither side wins economically. Money printing, and higher deficits to finance the war would surge and, where Russia is facing immediate consequences due to financial sanctions, the EU’s more robust economy would feel these affects at a later date (because it’s stronger relative position globally). That said, there probably has never been a more important moment for every individual to protect himself against this slow-motion head on collision which our leaders have brought upon us — the peoples of Europe.
Understand this: events are now in motion — such as Europe’s looming energy crisis — that don’t look at all likely to become undone. Broken supply chains and further disruptions in imports and exports as well as unforeseen circumstances almost guarantee that the purchasing power of the Euro will go down as goods become scarce (more so than it already has because of ongoing reckless easy monetary policy). The caveat is that war is over quickly and regime change in Russia is achieved. However, this still wouldn’t diminish bitcoin’s attractiveness as Western leaders have shown their hand with the Trudeau-trucker incident. Western leaders want to pigeon hole the population into CBDCs, where your wealth diminishes for the blind ambitions of oligarchs, autocrats and unelected bureaucrats.
Please take this commentary with a grain of salt as I’m not a geo-political expert. I am simply commenting on events and how they relate to bitcoin as I see them.
Catch you later.
p.s. This is my opinion. It is not financial advice.
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Originally published at https://mailchi.mp.