The Crypto Comms #23

  1. Volume flows
  2. Capitulation 2x
  3. Bitcoin leads
  4. Immediate technicals
  5. The irrational market
  6. Latest happenings
  7. Listening material

Technically speaking

Bitcoin analysis

BTC/USD daily consolidation range; RSI bull div; OBV breakout

Directionless consolidation

Moment after hitting send on last week’s newsletter, Bitcoin/Dollar started to drop precipitously — losing 9% in a single 4-hour candle.

On balance volume indicates the downtrend is over

The strong downtrend present since June has officially ended, per volume flow data on Coinbase. Coinbase is one of the largest crypto exchanges with robust retail volumes (spot buying). As such, it is indicative of natural market expansion and contraction more so than short term derivative trading.

Capitulation happened twice

In May and mid-June, BTC/USD witnessed major drawdowns to the tune of -26% and -35%, respectively. Liquidations were astronomically high and indicative of major capitulation events. As you know, bear markets tend to end with insolvencies, and crypto has had plenty of those.

Bitcoin leads, alts follow?

There are only so many ways to describe a ranging environment. Just as the merge hype went into turbo mode, Bitcoin took the market in its own direction, as usual. Ethereum exhausted its ‘merge hype’ momentum, and it remains to be seen how the market will value this asset as new revelations about PoS vs PoW emerge.

  1. the market prices in future money printing policy.
  2. legacy finance moves capital into the crypto economy.

Immediate technicals

In terms of current technical data, BTC must hold $18,300 on a daily closing basis to maintain the range, and potentially break to the upside. If the level is lost, we could see fantasy dirt-cheap prices below $16,000.

The irrational market

The market is wrong to wait on the Federal Reserve to dictate what it can and cannot do — how it should and shouldn’t react to pointless rate-hike policies.

Latest happenings

Listening material

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Chris on Crypto

Chris on Crypto

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Journalist-turned crypto-writer & analyst; forging the narrative, stacking sats.