The Crypto Comms #25

Bitcoin is in a choppy market environment. But the macro-economic outlook underlines how legacy finance is trapped, and Bitcoin — as ever — is the way out.

Let’s dig in.

In this issue:

  1. Heat to the max
  2. Latest happenings
  3. Listening material

Bitcoin analysis

After 120 days of consolidation, it’s safe to say that Bitcoin has become a stablecoin. But suppressed historical volatility suggests that wild price-swings are coming.

Price retreated below $19,500 on Monday, invalidating the rounding bottom structure visible since late September. As noted in the telegram channel, the significance of the breakdown in market structure is debateable given its broader ranging environment.

Bitcoin simply won’t follow the rounding-bottom path up.

Price now exchanges hands at a pivotal level — $19,000. Bullish divergences on low time frames (H1) haven’t translated into positive price-action and BTC/USD continues to consistently print (H4) bearish candles (save one today).

Losing the pivot ($19,000) in the immediate short term opens the door to $18,600 and $18,300 respectively. Upside liquidity above $20,500 remains untapped, however. In these choppy market conditions, I’m inclined to think ‘unchopped’ areas are tailwinds for impulsive moves — at least until the big swing comes.

BTC/USD H1 technical picture

Heat turned to the max

As Bitcoin remains steadfast around these levels, traditional markets have admitted in one form or another that they’re at risk of getting liquidated by US Federal Reserve rate hike policy.

The IMF, the UN, UK pension funds, Credit Suisse and a host asset managers, potentially JPMorgan, have all indicated that debt-levels are at odds with Central Bank monetary tightening.

When ‘too-big-to-fail’ traditional financial behemoths say this publicly, it means that internal conversations haven’t had the desired effect. But more importantly, it means that nation-state sovereign debt is on a cliff-edge because of contagion considerations.

Given this backdrop, it’s a mystery why asset managers and funds insist on remaining in a bloated traditional market when Bitcoin sorted its credit risks months ago.

Latest happenings

Listening material

Dear readers,

The purpose of this newsletter analysis is to provide context to current events and cryptocurrency markets. It is released every Monday and Wednesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service or financial advice. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.

Thank you for reading.

Feel free to contact me with feedback on contact@chrisoncrypto.com.

Join the Telegram channel for live updates.

Follow me on Twitter.

Get in touch. Let’s work together.

You can also support me with Bitcoin!

BTC address: 3EydsEYpjHn68axKnCUqBB7EbqcxrEjamr

--

--

Journalist-turned crypto-writer & analyst; forging the narrative, stacking sats.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store
Chris on Crypto

Journalist-turned crypto-writer & analyst; forging the narrative, stacking sats.