The Crypto Comms #25
Bitcoin is in a choppy market environment. But the macro-economic outlook underlines how legacy finance is trapped, and Bitcoin — as ever — is the way out.
Let’s dig in.
In this issue:
- Bitcoin analysis
- Heat to the max
- Latest happenings
- Listening material
Bitcoin analysis
After 120 days of consolidation, it’s safe to say that Bitcoin has become a stablecoin. But suppressed historical volatility suggests that wild price-swings are coming.
Price retreated below $19,500 on Monday, invalidating the rounding bottom structure visible since late September. As noted in the telegram channel, the significance of the breakdown in market structure is debateable given its broader ranging environment.
Bitcoin simply won’t follow the rounding-bottom path up.
Price now exchanges hands at a pivotal level — $19,000. Bullish divergences on low time frames (H1) haven’t translated into positive price-action and BTC/USD continues to consistently print (H4) bearish candles (save one today).
Losing the pivot ($19,000) in the immediate short term opens the door to $18,600 and $18,300 respectively. Upside liquidity above $20,500 remains untapped, however. In these choppy market conditions, I’m inclined to think ‘unchopped’ areas are tailwinds for impulsive moves — at least until the big swing comes.
Heat turned to the max
As Bitcoin remains steadfast around these levels, traditional markets have admitted in one form or another that they’re at risk of getting liquidated by US Federal Reserve rate hike policy.
The IMF, the UN, UK pension funds, Credit Suisse and a host asset managers, potentially JPMorgan, have all indicated that debt-levels are at odds with Central Bank monetary tightening.
When ‘too-big-to-fail’ traditional financial behemoths say this publicly, it means that internal conversations haven’t had the desired effect. But more importantly, it means that nation-state sovereign debt is on a cliff-edge because of contagion considerations.
Given this backdrop, it’s a mystery why asset managers and funds insist on remaining in a bloated traditional market when Bitcoin sorted its credit risks months ago.
Latest happenings
- UN Calls on FED & Central Banks to Halt Interest-Rate Hikes.
- SWIFT Says it has Resolved Obstacles to CBDC Adoption.
- Ark Invest Report: Bitcoin Long-Term HODL Supply Ratio Reaches All Time High.
- Censorship Resistance? Dapper Labs Restricts Services to Russians.
- Paul Tudor Jones Says Bitcoin will have a much higher value.
Listening material
Dear readers,
The purpose of this newsletter analysis is to provide context to current events and cryptocurrency markets. It is released every Monday and Wednesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service or financial advice. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.
Thank you for reading.
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