The Crypto Comms #33
‘Bitcoin is going to zero’. This phrase has been repeated in many formats most recently by CBDC proponent Ulrich Bindseil, who may have marked the bottom of this bear market with his hubris.
In this edition, we discuss the technical picture and the struggle for victory over CBDCs.
In this issue:
- Bitcoin analysis
- To Victory
- Latest happenings
- Listening material
Bitcoin is at that stage where it ranges in perpetuity as the market loses interest. I too, have lost some interest. These moments tend to be filled with apathy and a few distant yet loud voices who keep the Bitcoin flag flying high through thick and thin.
Whoever had to sell sold. Any institution which did not have a strong balance sheet, or which manipulated data to fake its balance sheet (queue FTX) is no more.
Bitcoin’s long-legged weekly Doji candle signals the market is at a cross roads. Taking last week’s highs and lows into consideration, the effective trading range is $17,400 — $16,600, thereabouts.
Technically, both levels are targets, but this is only one aspect to consider. Funding rates are negative, and a positive weekly RSI divergence is still in play.
On lower time-frames (H4), BTC/USD is compressing in between the 200 EMA (blue), the 20 (white dotted) and 50 EMAs (orange). Similar to trendline dynamics, when a moving average is repeatedly tested, the tendency is for price to break out in the direction of the test.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but it adds context to current price-action.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to release at 2:30 CET today. As discussed in telegram, volatility tends to surround these events, and broadly speaking, if the ‘actual’ is less than the ‘forecast’ print, then that is a tailwind for Bitcoin and risk-assets (or at least that’s the prevailing sentiment/read).
In my view, this is irrelevant at this stage in the game, and hardly as important as what’s taking place in real time. Our way of life is under threat and there seems to be little appreciation for how bad life could be if Central Bank Digital Currencies become the dominant medium of exchange in the future. Everything is downstream from finance. The EU is tightening the noose on cash transactions, all the while accelerating the development of its China-style anti-freedom technology.
The narratives they talk about are all a smoke screen to cover up the global sovereign debt crisis. Money laundering and terrorist financing are a pretext; an excuse to get ordinary people to comply with being worse off. The development of CBDCs is accelerating and in an increasingly cashless world, the argument for Bitcoin and Litecoin is air tight.
It’s not even an argument, merely a realisation; an ‘aha moment’. I like to think that on aggregate I am working towards that. I’d like to think it is not all in vain.
As always, we either win or go down with the ship. That’s my personal opinion and it’s certainly not a financially responsible stance given the context.
But we’ve only one shot at getting it right, and when you shoot your load, make sure its on target.
- Mike McGlone: BTC Transitioning Towards a High-Beta Version of Gold and USTs.
- Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Reaches 78% as Investors Refuse to Sell.
- Regulators Responsible for Capital Destruction? SEC Legal Brief Defends Fact-free GBTC-ETF Conversion Rejection.
- European Union Cracks Down on Physical Cash In Preparation for Draconian CBDC Introduction.
The purpose of this newsletter analysis is to provide context to current events and cryptocurrency markets. It is released every Tuesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service or financial advice. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.
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