The Crypto Comms #34; BTC IS the Extinction-Level-Event
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This issue is purely technical. We’ll look at the levels of interest for the week, and what needs to happen for BTC to reclaim $20,000.
In this issue:
- Bitcoin analysis
- Latest happenings
- Listening material
Bitcoin closed the week on a poor note — retracing all gains it made in December in one fell swoop. The high (LWH) for the prior week is set at $18,375, and the low (LWL) at $16,520. These are the two primary technical data points we’ll work with.
Monday’s opening price stands at $16,730, per aggregated trading view data. This price-point may offer some use on low-time-frames, but isn’t considered too much in this report.
BTC/USD dropped below LWL on Monday evening, sweeping the lows before fully retracing back to the Mon. open. If range trading and liquidity hunting logic applies, then the setup is fairly straightforward. Prices swept the low early on in the week. Therefore, even if new lows are next, it’s prudent to anticipate a mid-range retest beforehand.
As discussed in telegram, $17,130 is an initial area of interest, since the level was pivotal in both consolidation before prices took off, and consolidation after BTC/USD puked as the week came to its abysmal close. As such, it’s a level to potentially de-risk pending further data. As a bull with non-retractable blinkers, de-risking does not sit well with me as BTC meanders in the deep value area.
However, $17,460 is the main pivotal level that’s interesting. Not only is it the mid-point of our weekly range, but it’s within an arms length of the prior trading range where BTC/USD exchanged hands for over 5 months. If Bitcoin bulls can close multiple daily candles above this level, there’s a reasonably strong argument for a $20,000 retest (higher lows, higher highs). The news cycle is largely irrelevant, but muted price reactions to ‘bad news’ are reversal confluence signals.
Still, bulls have a lot convincing to do given that the weekly chart looks like its about to experience a 4th near-death-experience in a single bear market.
I’ll not repeat the plethora of reason why Bitcoin is within deep value territory. The point of this writeup is ‘price context’. If prices continue heading lower, there’s no point getting worked up about it. This asset is not going away, no matter how hard the powers that be try to undermine it.
You can’t engineer yourself out of the extinction-level-event that is Bitcoin. Central bankers can only buy time, and the clock is still ticking.
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The purpose of this newsletter analysis is to provide context to current events and cryptocurrency markets. It is released every Tuesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service or financial advice. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.
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