The Crypto Comms #36; On-Chain Data Confluence

Chris on Crypto
4 min readJan 10, 2023


The total cryptocurrency market cap sits at $888 billion. Value has consolidated into Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins. As it happens, a variety of data-points indicate BTC is in an attractive long-term order bloc.

In this issue:

  • Bitcoin analysis
  • On-chain data
  • latest happenings
  • Listening material

Bitcoin analysis

BTC/USD exchanges hands at $17,250, gaining 3.5% week-on-week so far. A number of positive long-term technical tailwinds provide a base-reason for two potential scenarios: (1) relief rally, (2) sideways chop.

Firstly, the monthly Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI-cyclical-derivative) indicates seller exhaustion.

Secondly, the weekly Relative Strength Index has posted a positive divergence, whereby price has traversed lower with weakening momentum.

On-chain data

BTC: All Exchanges Netflow

In December, the total Netflow was largely negative, just like in the prior month. The highest outflows occurred on Dec. 13th (-34,261 BTC), when BTC/USD traded at $18,000. At a glance, there haven’t been major gyrations in January yet, but on the 9th a negative Netflow of -5,756 BTC was registered. Of these outflows, -2,844 came from Binance.

The general trend of coins leaving exchanges remains, adding to Bitcoin’s growing illiquid supply trend.

BTC: Exchange Reserves

The number of BTC held on exchanges was on the decline at the start of December, and registered a new low of 2,140,197 BTC on Dec. 19th. Since then, there’s been a minor uptick, but nothing significant considering the significant drop-off in early November.

BTC: Market-Value-To-Realised-Value Ratio (MVRV Z-score)

The MVRV-Z score has been in the value area since June 2022. Locally, the metric has been rising since November 9th, from -0.37 to -0.19 as of Jan. 9th. Currently, Bitcoin is undervalued according to this metric. Long-winded price consolidation tends to precede positive price swings, historically.

BTC: HODL Wave 1y-2y

The Bitcoin 1–2 year HODL-wave band has been growing since the UST implosion in May. The band swell tends to coincide with long-term accumulation phases. Presently, the 1–2 year band holds 18.4% of the total BTC supply. While there is room for this band to expand further, the figure is significant since values approximating 20% (+/-2%) tend to coincide with cyclical bottoming phases.

All in all, these are positive signs for Bitcoin which have yet to be confirmed by price-movements. Distrust of centralised entities is high and assets on exchanges continue to plummet. Long-term holders are in control of a growing number of BTC, indicating that the pool of entities who won’t sell at these prices is increasing.

As such, I continue to think that a catastrophic event in the ecosystem would be required for another leg down. This is the time to be patient and look up.


Latest happenings

Listening material

Dear readers,

The purpose of this newsletter analysis is to provide context to current events and cryptocurrency markets. It is released every Tuesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter analysis a signals service or financial advice. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.

Thank you for reading.

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Chris on Crypto

Journalist-turned crypto-writer & analyst; forging the narrative, stacking sats.