The key thing about bitcoin is that it has attributes which have never existed before, that is, definable diminishing supply coupled with early days of adoption, on its way to becoming global digital collateral. This means it is both a technology investment as well as schmuck insurance, i.e., it is positioned for every outcome.
In this issue:
- Bitcoin analysis
- Multi-pronged war
- Latest happenings
- Listening material
Bitcoin has traded between $29,500 and $26,500 since it reclaimed the 200-weekly ema on March 17th. The top coin experienced a 40% rally in January, followed by a muted February, and another 45% run up in March. For the first quarter of 2023, Bitcoin is up 72% against a backdrop of traditional financial failures, driven by the Federal Reserve and central banks.
Given the persistent sideways price-action, the surface-level technical picture has not changed since last Tuesday. However, recent capital flows — as measured by liquid volume inflows into BTC (CVD) — indicate that the market has evolved to favour spot-driven products over futures contracts. The context has changed.
Specifically, aggregated futures volumes peaked on January 19th, and have since cooled off. Meanwhile, SPOT volumes registered an uptick on March 9th, and have since significantly overtaken leveraged crypto products. This shift means price behaviour has entered into a different regime, which is likely in like with bitcoin’s long-term secular trend (up and to the right).
Generally, a spot-driven market is more resilient to downward pressure since there are less borrowing fees and funding costs involved in this market environment. There’s also less ‘forced selling’ pressure as long margin calls are both diminished and absorbed by spot market buyers.
As such, SPOT bitcoin purchases are indicative of underlying strength in this rally. In conjunction with a persistent trend of coins leaving exchanges, it’s evident that players aren’t taking any chances. Self-custody is on the rise, thereby increasing Bitcoin’s illiquid supply, placing upward pressure on due to thin order books.
Long story short, there’s less bitcoin to go around, less downside systemic risks (Spot>Futures), and a growing demand for Bitcoin as evidenced by its price appreciation.
A multi-pronged war on citizens
While it pains me to put negative thoughts on paper (unfortunately it seems like all I do these days), regulators in the United States, Europe, the UK and elsewhere aren’t really painting a pretty picture for the future. Quite the opposite, they’ve instead decided to wage war on their own citizens as they lock arms to create a China-style surveillance state where you can no longer transact freely. It’s completely accurate to say that within this would-be iron curtain, all your rights will be forfeit (even property rights).
In the United States, the ‘Restrict Act’ is set to give authorities the ability to prohibit VPNs and privacy-preserving technology under the pretext of banning Chinese social media TikTok. In essence, US regulators are outlawing freedom by pursuing CCP-style regulations that create the same conditions for absolute and total control over everyone and anyone using the internet. Separately, but certainly not by coincidence, the US’ FedNow — another CBDC program — is expected to launch in July this year.
These are attempts to nationalise the Internet, and introduce capital controls which will directly dictate what people can and cannot purchase. It’s a multi-pronged war against freedom and individual sovereignty on par with petty tyrannies in BRICS nations.
In Europe, the ability to anonymously transact digital assets is under assault as the European Parliament voted in favour of imposing 1,000 Euro limits on payments by so-called ‘unverified crypto users’. The move comes as the EP moves to wind down cash transactions and redefine ‘money’ to ‘coupons’ by implementing a CBDC. In a nutshell, a central bank digital currency means you are no longer in control of what you spend your hard earned money on.
The United Kingdom is also on board with limiting cash transactions. This was confirmed in February in a ‘consultation paper’ for the introduction of a ‘Britcoin’ CBDC.
The peoples of the free world are at a cross roads. On the one hand, there are a handful of cryptocurrencies — spearheaded by Bitcoin — which promise to uphold individual freedoms where it matters most (i.e. the monetary base-layer); and on the other hand regulators and their CBDC plans, which promise to restrict, isolate, and foster an abusive relationship between normal people and public servants (who have forgotten they serve us, not the other way around).
None of this is hyperbole. And if you think it’s all so tiresome, remember that some of us don’t shed light on these things because we want to; we say it because we have to.
- EU To Impose Є1,000 limit on ‘unverified crypto’ payments as CBDC Looms.
- Litecoin Hashrate Glimpses 900TH/s as it Reaches Digital Commodity Status.
- Compliance or Resistance? Averting the CBDC Dystopia that Awaits.
The purpose of this newsletter analysis is to provide context to current events and cryptocurrency markets. It is released every Tuesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter analysis a signals service or financial advice. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.
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