The Crypto Comms #7
Hesitancy on the well-overdue Bitcoin relief rally remains as risk-assets appear to be waiting for a ‘macro trigger’, or a reason to rally. Despite lacklustre impetus, the PVP-environment could give way to vertical price-action by the end of July.
In this issue:
- Bitcoin analysis
- Latest happenings
- Listening material
Bitcoin/dollar held onto the 20% gain off the $17,500 lows, closing the week at the $21,000 handle.
BTC/USD has not yet tested the 20-daily ema, currently resting at $22,900. The longer price lingers at current levels, the lower the potential local bounce as the moving average slowly inches towards current prices.
Upside targets for the longer-term relief rally could begin to materialise by the end of July, with $27,000-$28,000 being the first zone to expect a reaction from sellers.
The logic behind the ‘Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap fill theory’ is that left-over institutional liquidity tends to get tapped over time. And the CME-Bitcoin futures ticker is the largest regulated futures product on the market, hence the emphasis.
Locally, Bitcoin broke out of the inverse head and shoulders structure but has yet to see any follow-through. Weekend trading saw prices chop between $20,800 and $21,800, setting technical higher lows on H4.
The choppy price-action is also accompanied by low-volumes, indicating a lack of conviction in the breakout direction. However, a cluster of support resting between $20,700 & $20,300 may yet offer an opportunity for renewed bullish conviction to materialise in the near future (should BTC/USD retreat from $21,400).
On the flipside, an H4 reclaim of $21,500 opens the door to $23,000 (near the 20-daily ema). But bullish conviction is lacking to say the least. Market conditions remain depressed despite the impressive 20% bounce last week.
All in all, BTC/USD is in an accumulation zone where medium to long-term spot buys are a no-brainer. When it comes to margin trading, the local environment since June 21 can only be described as PVP-price-action. As always, price can do what it wants, but the larger context of a slow-moving BTC/USD is “accumulation before an overdue relief rally” in my view.
All things considered, a $35,000 Bitcoin should not surprise anyone by the end of July.
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The purpose of this newsletter analysis is to provide context to current events and cryptocurrency markets. It is released every Monday and Wednesday. I am not perfect and this is not a science — nor is this newsletter a signals service or financial advice. While I cannot promise perfection I do my best to be honest and transparent.
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